IC Insights expects an 18% "surge" in the IC market

I post here a very interesting article, even if not related to compact modelling, from EDN:(visit them for more interesting articles)

IC market second-half 'surge' predicted

IC Insights expects an 18% "surge" in the IC market in the second half of the year and claims there is clear evidence that the much-anticipated turning point toward recovery has already occurred.

By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- Electronic News, 7/2/2009

The second half of 2009 will be much better than the first for the semiconductor industry, and will be marked by an IC market "surge," according to IC Insights.

The market research company this week reported that while the first half of 2009 was hit hard by seasonal weakness for electronic system sales, a major IC inventory adjustment, and the global recession at its worst, the second half of 2009 is expected to usher in strong seasonal strength for electronic system sales, a period of IC inventory replenishment, and positive worldwide GDP growth.

"In IC Insights' opinion, the bottom of the current cycle in the worldwide economy and semiconductor industry was reached in Q1 2009," Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, said in a statement on the company's mid-year update. "While the 'velocity' of the semiconductor industry recovery is subject to debate (slow, moderate, fast, etc), at least the discussion over the next few quarters will be about how much sequential growth can be expected in instead of how far the markets are going to fall."

Also see: Demand surge expected in second half, IC Insights says Major upsets in semiconductor top 20 ranking, IC Insights reports Bottom hit in Q1, 5% growth for Q2 expected, IC Insights reports

IC Insights has long been encouraging the idea that, when viewed on a quarterly basis, a much more positive and "relevant" outlook business conditions can be achieved.

For example, according to the company's data, worldwide GDP growth is forecast to be negative this year of down 0.8% on a weak first half with growth down, but the second half of the year is expected to register positive growth of 2%. (See figure 1 below.) The same pattern is forecast for the US economy, as well, with the second half showing growth of 1.3% as compared to the first half.

Specific to the electronics industry, IC Insights reported seasonal strength is likely to propel second-half cell phone and PC unit shipments up by 18% and 15%, respectively, as compared to the first half.

Overall, IC Insights said it expects an 18% "surge" in IC market sales in the second half, as compared to the first half. "In fact, the double-digit Q2 2009/Q1 2009 IC market increase is clear evidence of the fact that the much-anticipated turning point has already occurred," McClean said.

According to IC Insights, the IC foundry market is expected to continue its "sharp recovery" in the second half of 2009. McClean noted that the IC foundry market almost doubled in Q2 as compared to Q1.

"There is no doubt that, as a group, the semiconductor equipment suppliers have taken the worst 'beating' of any of the companies involved in the current semiconductor industry downturn," McClean said. "However, the second half of 2009 is expected to offer some relief for these suppliers as semiconductor industry capital spending is forecast to jump by 28% as compared to the first half of 2009."

McClean noted that many of the major semiconductor suppliers that IC Insights tracks are planning to spend the majority of their capital spending budgets in the second half of 2009. Offering example, he said Hynix spent 30% of its 2009 spending budget in the first half, but plans to spend the remaining 70% in the second half.