The Scariest Graph

Posted from SemiWiki:

The Scariest Graph I've Seen Recently

by

Paul McLellan

Published on 06-18-2012 02:34 PM

10 Comments

Everyone knows Moore's Law: the number of transistors on a chip doubles every couple of years. We can take the process roadmap for Intel, TSMC or GF and pretty much see what the densities we will get will be when 20/22nm, 14nm and 10nm arrive. Yes the numbers are on track.

But I have always pointed out that this is not what drives the semiconductor industry. It is much better to look at Moore's Law the other way around, namely that the cost of any given functionality implemented in semiconductors halves every couple of years. It is this which has meant that you can buy (or even your kid can buy) a 3D graphics console that contains graphics way beyond what would have cost you millions of dollars 20 years ago in a state of the art flight simulator.

But look at this graph:

This shows the cost for a given piece of functionality (namely a million gates) in the current process generation and looking out to 20nm and 14nm. It is flat (actually perhaps getting worse). This might not matter too much for Intel's server business since those have such high margins that they can probably live with a price that doesn't come down as much as it has done historically. And they can make real money by putting more and more onto a chip. But it is terrible for businesses like mobile computing that don't live on the bleeding edge of the maximum number of transistors on a chip. If you are not filling up your 28nm die and a 20nm die costs just the same (and is much harder to design) why bother? Just design a bigger 28nm die (there may be some power savings but even that is dubious since leakage is typically an increasing challenge).

If this graph remains the case, then Moore's Law carries on in the technical sense that you can put twice as many transistors on your chip if you can think of something clever to do with them and can find a way to keep enough of them powered on. But it means there is no longer an economic driver to move to a new process unless you have run out of space on the old one.

Since EDA mostly makes money on designs in new processes (because they need new tools which can be sold at a premium) this is bad for EDA. It actually doesn't make money on the first few designs coming through a new process because there is so much corresponding engineering to be done. But if the mainstream never moves, the cash-cow aspect of selling EDA tools to the mainstream won't happen. And just like there is no business selling "microprocessor design tools" since there are too few groups who would buy them and their needs are too different, there might never be a big enough market for "14nm design tools" to justify the investment.

So that's why this is the scariest graph in EDA.

[mos-ak] [2nd announcement] 10th MOS-AK/GSA ESSDERC/ESSCIRC Workshop in Bordeaux, Sept. 21, 2012

[2nd announcement] 10th MOS-AK/GSA ESSDERC/ESSCIRC Workshop in Bordeaux, Sept. 21, 2012
http://mos-ak.org/bordeaux/

Together with the Organizing Committee, Extended MOS-AK/GSA TPC Committee, and the IEEE EDS French Branch, the the technical program sponsor, we have pleasure to invite to the 10th MOS-AK/GSA Compact Modeling Workshop at the ESSDERC/ESSCIRC Conference in Bordeaux, Sept. 21, 2012.  

Free on-line registration (open on June 18) 

http://www.mos-ak.org/bordeaux/registration.php

The terms of participation, intending participants and authors should also note the following dates: 

• Preannouncement - April 2012
• Call for Papers - May 2012
• Abstract submission deadline - July 2012
• On-line abstract submission (open on June 18):
• http://mos-ak.org/bordeaux/abstracts.php
• Final Workshop Program - Aug. 2012
• MOS-AK/GSA Workshop - Sept. 21, 2012 http://www.mos-ak.org/bordeaux/
• Morning Session
• Panel Discussion: "Status and Next Decade of European Compact Modeling"
• Poster Session 
• Afternoon Session

Speakers (tentative list): 

Prof. Maria Helena Fino, Universidade Nova Lisboa, P

Prof. Lidia Lukasiak, TU Warsaw, PL

Prof. Androula Nassiopoulou, IMEL Demokritos, GR

Prof. Elena Gnani, University of Bologna, I

Munira Raja. Uni. Liverpool, UK

Maria-Alexandra Paun, EPFL, CH

Sadayuki Yoshitomi, Toshiba, JP

Yogesh S. Chauhan, UC Berkeley, USA

Patrick Martin, Minatec, F

Daniel Tomaszewski, ITE Warsaw, PL

Further details and updates: <http://mos-ak.org/bordeaux/> 

Email contact: <workshops@mos-ak.org> 

- with regards - WG (for the MOS-AK/GSA Committee) 

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––---------------- 

COMON Tranining Course Tarragona (SP) June 28-29, 2012

MOS-AK/GSA Bordeaux (F) Sept.21, 2012 

MOS-AK/GSA San Francisco, CA Q4 2012 

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––---------------- 

Special IETE issue on Compact Modeling

Special IETE issue (May-June 2012 Volume 58; Issue 3 Page Nos. 179-242) on Compact Modeling: "Compact Modeling as a Bridge between Scaled Semiconductor Technologies and Advanced Designs of the Integrated Circuits" is available on-line with following articles:

1. A Hybrid Verilog-A and Equation-defined Subcircuit Approach to MOS Switched Current Analog Cell Simulation p. 181
   Mike E Brinson, Stefan Jahn, H Nabijou
2. Aging Model for a 40 V Nch MOS, Based on an Innovative Approach p. 191
   Filippo Alagi, Roberto Stella, Emanuele Viganó
3. Complex 2D Electric Field Solution in Undoped Double-gate MOSFETs p. 197
   Mike Schwarz, Thomas Holtij, Alexander Kloes, Benjamín Iñíguez
4. 2D Analytical Calculation of the Parasitic Source/Drain Resistances in DG-MOSFETs Using the Conformal Mapping Technique p. 205
   Thomas Holtij, Mike Schwarz, Alexander Kloes, Benjamín Iñíguez
5. RF Compact Modeling of High-voltage MOSFETs p. 214
   Antonios Bazigos, François Krummenacher, Jean-Michel Sallese, Matthias Bucher, Ehrenfried Seebacher, Werner Posch, Kund Molnár, Mingchun Tang
6. HSPICE Model of the Physical Resistor p. 222
   Petr Beták, Petr Zavrel
7. Enhanced Non-quasi-static Lauritzen Diode Model p. 226
   Lenka Sochová, Petr Beták, Ján Plojhár
8. Self-heating Parameter Extraction of Power Metal-oxide-silicon Field Effect Transistor Based on Transient Drain Current Measurement p. 230
   Risho Koh, Takahiro Iizuka
9. Extraction of Scalable Electrical Model for HV (600/800 V) MOS Transistors p. 237
   Lorenzo Labate, Simona Angela Cozzi, Roberto Stella

450mm Impact Report Now Available For Free Download

This unique and authoritative report identifies the activities required to attract investments and to support 450mm and other advanced research, innovation, prototyping and semiconductor production. This report was based on a 14-month study Future Horizons undertook, together with the French market research firm Decision, between January 2011 and February 2012.

A copy of the report can be downloaded from the Commission's website at: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/nanoelectronics/documents/450mm-final-report.pdf

If you have any questions on the report on some of the wider 450mm issues, please do so via our website at www.futurehorizons.com or call +44 1732 740440.

[mos-ak] 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling: Registration Open

The MOS-AK Group as main dissemination partner of the European COMON Compact Modeling Network is announcing series of the modeling events:

• 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling (June 28-29)
  
• http://www.compactmodelling.eu/tccm2_programme.php
• 8th ICOE International Conference on Organic Electronics (June 25-27)
  
• http://www.icoe2012.net/
• 10th Graduate Student Meeting (June 21-22)
  
• http://sauron.etse.urv.es/events/workshop/

Visit also the compact modeling calendar at www.mos-ak.org

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10th Graduate Student Meeting on Electronic Engineering in Tarragona (Spain)

The Graduate Student Meeting on Electronic Engineering, has been an annual event, created and organized by the Department of Electronic, Electrical and Automatic Control Engineering of the Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV, Tarragona, Spain) since 2003. Consist of two days of plenary talks given by invited prestigious researchers about selected topics related to electronic engineering, short talk given by last year Doctoral students presenting their last research results and a poster sessions were master and PhD students in this field presented their work. With this format, the Graduated Student Meeting has become a very useful forum for Master and PhD students as well as researchers in the field of Electronic Engineering.

The 10th  Graduate Student Meeting on Electronic Engineering will be held at the Campus of the Universitat Rovira (Tarragona, Spain) from June 22 to 23 2012. Registration is free.

So we encourage graduated students working in the topics:

• Nanoelectronics and Nanophotonics
• Micro and Nanosystems
• Power Electronics & Renewable Energy Systems
• Signal Processing and Data Mining
• Automatic Control

To submit their recent work to be considered for acceptance and published in the book of Abstracts of the Meeting. The deadline for abstracts reception is June 8^th.

Registration is free!

The invited lectures and lecturers will be:

Thermal modeling and simulation

Dr. Goce Arsov,, Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, Macedonia

Analysis of a chaotic motion of a linear switched reluctance motor

Dr. Bruno Robert, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, France

Hydrothermal synthesis and the Influence of Hydrothermal Reaction Parameters on the Morphology and Dimensions of Sodium Titanate and MnO2 nanostructures

Dr. Polona Umek, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Advances in Nanoelectronics and Functional Diversifications

Dr. Simon Deleonibus, CEA-LETI, MINATEC, Grenoble 38054, France

Knowledge Discovery by Accuracy Maximization

Dr. Stefano Cacciatore, CERM, University of Florence, Italy

Porous silicon for the construction of biosensors and for biomedical applications

Dr. Frédérique Cunin, Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier, France


As you can see, some of the lectures are related to device modeling.

Besides, the 10th Graduate Student Meetiong will be held in conjunction with two more interesting events, which also will take place in Tarrgona:

1) The 8th International Conference on Organic Electronics (ICOE): June 25-27 2012.

2) The 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling (TCCM), June 28-29 2012.

2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling: Registration open

Building on the success of its first edition in 2012, the 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling (TCCM) will be held in Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) on June 28-29 2012. It will be organized by will be organized by the NEPHOS Group, of the Department of Electronic, Electrical and Automatic Control Engineering at the Universitat Rovira i Virgili (Tarragona).. The General Chairman is Prof. Benjamin Iñiguez.



The Training Course on Compact Modeling will consist of 12 of lectures addressing relevant topics in the compact modeling of advanced electron devices. These lectures will be conducted by top experts in the field. Most of the lectures will target compact modeling issues applicable to many electron devices. In particular, emphasis will be given on MOSFETs (bulk, SOI, Multi-Gate and High Voltage MOS structures) and HEMTs.


REGISTRATION IS OPEN. It is quite cheap:



Advanced Registration (before June 16)
Students: 100 euro
Non-Students: 130 euro
COMON Members: FREE


On-Site Registration (after June 16)
Students: 150 euro
Non-Students: 180 euro
COMON Members: FREE

NOTE: The gala dinner is included in the registration price.

 Registration includes lunches, coffe breaks and a Gala Dinner on June 28, in a nice restaurant with TV screens to watch the Semifinals match of the Soccer European Cup ...

There will be a 50% discount for all members that participate in the SQWIRE FP/ EU project, as well as the participants to the 8th International Conference on Organic Electronics (ICOE 2012).


The Training Course on Compact Modeling is an event sponsored by the FP7 “COMON” (COmpact MOdelling Network) IAPP Project (which is coordinated by the Universitat Rovira i Virgili) in collaboration with the IEEE EDS Compact Modeling Technical Committee.

The programme of the 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling is:

Thursday, June 28
8:30	Benjamin Iñiguez - Universitat Rovira i Virgili (Tarragona, Spain)
	Training Courses Opening Session
8:55	Raphaël Clerc - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (Grenoble, France)
	"Tunnel and quasi-ballistictransport modelling in nanoscale MOS devices"
10:05	Jamal Deen - McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)
	"High frequency noise modeling"
11:15	Coffee Break
11:40	Romain Ritzenthaler - IMEC (Leuven, Belgium)
	"3D analytical modelling techniques for Tri-Gate MOS structures"
12:50	Franz Sischka - Agilent Technologies (Böblingen, Germany)
	"S-parameter and nonlinear RF modelling"
14:00	Lunch
15:15	Frédéric Martinez - Université de Montpellier 2 (Montpellier, France)
	"Low frequency noise modeling"
16:25	David Jiménez - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Barcelona, Spain)
	"Quantum confinement models for nanoelectronic devices"
20:30	Gala Dinner
Friday, June 29
8:45	Giovanni Ghione - Politecnico di Torino (Torino, Italy)
	"Thermal modelling of RF and microwave devices"
9:55	Colin C. McAndrew - Freescale Semiconductors (Phoenix, AZ, USA)
	"Statistical modelling techniques"
11:05	Coffee Break
11:30	Antonio Cerdeira - CINVESTAV (Mexico D.F., Mexico)
	"Design-oriented compact modelling for Multi-Gate MOS devices"
12:50	Mike Brinson - Metropolitan University of London (London, UK)
	"QucsStudio: A second generation Qucs software package for compact semiconductor devicemodel development based on interactive and compiled equation-defined modellingtechniques plus circuit simulation"
14:00	Lunch
15:15	Thomas Gneiting - AdMOS GmbH (Frickenhausen, Germany)
	"Flicker noise measurements and characterization"
16:25	Peter Lee - Elpida Memory (Japan) and vice-chair of the Compact Modeling Council
	"World-wide Model Standardization at the CMC, and DRAM Modeling Needs"
17:35	Conclusions and announcements

Besides, on June 25-27 the same group at URV will organize 8th International Conference on Organic Electronics (ICOE 2012) also in Tarragona. Participants to this Training Course will have a reduced fee for ICOE 2012.


Last but not least, the 10th Graduate Student Meeting on Electronic Engineering will be hels at URV Campus, Tarragona, from June 21 to 22. This event consist of two days of plenary talks given by invited prestigious researchers about selected topics related to electronic engineering, short talk given by last year Doctoral students presenting their last research results and a poster sessions were master and PhD students in this field presented their work. With this format, the Graduated Student Meeting has become a very useful forum for Master and PhD students as well as researchers in the field of Electronic Engineering.



Therefore, if you are interested in the three events, you can stay in Tarragona from June 22 to 29, and spoend the weekend there. The night from June 23 to 24 is the St. John's eve, which is well celebrated in Tarragona (in particular, on the beach) as well as in the rest of Catalonia.


Tarragona is located in the south of Catalonia, in the northeast corner of the Iberian Peninsula. Tarraco (its Roman name) was one of the most important cities in the Roman Empire.
On 30 November 2000, the UNESCO committee officially declared the Roman archaeological complex of Tàrraco a World Heritage Site.

Tarragona can be easily reached from Barcelona Airport by bus and train. It is about 100 Km South from Barcelona. Besides, Reus Airport (less than 15 Km from Tarragona) receives flights from many European cities in the summer.

Tarragona can be easily reached from Barcelona Airport by bus and train. It is about 100 Km South from Barcelona. Besides, Reus Airport (less than 15 Km from Tarragona) receives flights from many European cities in the summer.

Speaking about Tarraco's climate, the famous Roman poet Virgil wrote: "The climate blends and confuses the seasons singularly, so that all the year seems an eternal spring." Thanks to its temperate climate, with an average yearly temperature of 23ºC, its clean beaches with fine and gloden sand, and its singular artistic and architectural heritage, Tarragona is one of the most important tourism hubs in Europe.

I strongly encourage all people interested in compact modeling to attend the 2nd Training Course on Compact Modeling!